Which NFL teams could jump into playoff picture? Ranking seven outsiders from worst to best

With six weeks left in the 2023 regular season, the NFL's playoff stretch drive is about to kick into high gear.

And with so many clubs bunched in the middle of both the AFC and NFC packs, the stakes for many of the teams trying to qualify for postseason will only ratchet up. Take Sunday's matchup between the Denver Broncos, winners of five in a row, and the suddenly relevant Houston Texans. Both squads are 6-5 but at tiebreaker disadvantages to the Indianapolis Colts, also 6-5, who currently hold the AFC's final wild-card berth.

"It just so happens you're playing an AFC team that's a contender. You could say it's worth a little bit more," said Denver coach Sean Payton earlier this week.

"We put ourselves in a position where each of these games becomes more and more important, but the focus has to be strictly on this one."

A victory, and the head-to-head tiebreaker that comes with it, could make all the difference for the Broncos or Texans come January.

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But it's not only Denver and Houston hoping to break through. They're among the seven clubs currently outside the projected playoff field yet trailing the teams currently occupying the seventh seeds – Indianapolis and the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) – by no more than one game.

Who's likeliest to claw into the field and which are more likely pretenders probably clinging to false hope? Let's rank these postseason outsiders, at the moment anyway, from worst to best.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)

No offense, but they'll have no offense without injured QB Joe Burrow. Sorry, Cincy, but it's that simple. (But if the Jake Browning truthers need more evidence that this is now a lost campaign, the next six games are all against adversaries currently on track to reach postseason.)

6. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)

They dropped three in a row prior to their Week 10 bye but have won two straight since, revitalized by the returns of QB Matthew Stafford and RB Kyren Williams. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been quiet of late, but this attack could really be something if that duo reconnects with Stafford. A Week 9 loss at Green Bay, when Stafford was sidelined, could be damaging. A season sweep of the Seattle Seahawks could be edifying. But most important is what's ahead – namely, the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. Not an easy playoff pathway.

5. Green Bay Packers (5-6)

A very young team seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time, the Thanksgiving win at Detroit its most impressive of the season. Among teams currently outside the tentative postseason bracket, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an easier schedule (based on opponents' winning percentages) than the Pack's. Health could be a factor for this battered roster – though it wasn't an impediment in Motown – but QB Jordan Love and Co. already have two key wins (against the Saints and Rams) in hand, and those could be sufficient in the tiebreaker department down the line.

4. Houston Texans (6-5)

It's probably fair to suggest they've already exceeded all expectations – and that's certainly true of QB C.J. Stroud, who will likely be the runaway winner for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. And with the Broncos, Browns and Colts still on the docket, the Texans have a chance to dictate their playoff fortunes. But Stroud will also face two additional rugged defenses – the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans (twice) – and he and rookie HC DeMeco Ryans don't have the experience navigating these waters that, say, Payton and Denver QB Russell Wilson do. Stroud, who never played more than 12 regular-season games at Ohio State, must also beware the rookie wall as his 12th NFL start nears – though he's already downplaying any fatigue factor.

3. Denver Broncos (6-5)

They're the hottest team in the AFC, largely propelled by a defense that's forced 15 turnovers over the past four games while limiting opponents to 324.3 yards per over that stretch. The running game has eclipsed 100 yards in six of the last seven games, too, including a season-best 169 yards last Sunday against Cleveland's top-ranked defense. Finally, you've got a Super Bowl-winning coach (Payton) and Super Bowl winning-quarterback (Wilson) who've found some kind of groove – even if Wilson is mostly a game manager at this point – and know what it takes to win at this time of year. The game at Houston looms large, but the home stretch seems fairly manageable overall – though the Broncos' will be on the road for four of those six contests.

2. Buffalo Bills (6-6)

They're currently in 10th place overall in the AFC, yet only a half-game behind Indianapolis. The Bills have scored 66 points and stacked up nearly 900 yards since installing Joe Brady as offensive coordinator and now get a week off to further regroup. They're one of four teams league-wide to outscore its opposition collectively by more than 100 points. QB Josh Allen's league-high 13 interceptions are a concern, yet he's also produced 33 touchdowns, including an NFL-best 24 TD passes. The Kansas City Chiefs (at Arrowhead) and Dallas Cowboys (in Orchard Park) loom on the other side of the bye. But if Buffalo can get a split there, reasonable chance they can sweep through the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins – especially given the likelihood the Fins could very well be resting their key starters in Week 18. Just feels like the circumstances, talent and experience here should be enough to carry the day in crunch time.

1. New Orleans Saints (5-6)

Come again, right? Don't misconstrue this as a suggestion that the Saints are the best team among the 18 currently sitting outside the playoff field. The offense is the best it's been since QB Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, but that's hardly a high bar. Derek Carr's first year in the Big Easy has been fairly underwhelming and unlikely to improve markedly as injuries to his receivers continue to mount, Michael Thomas (knee) now on injured reserve and field stretcher Rashid Shaheed's status for Sunday in doubt due to a quad issue. And yet the upcoming game with the Detroit Lions is the last the Saints are currently scheduled to play against an opponent with a winning record. They've also got viable paths to both a wild card and the NFC South crown. New Orleans might not have to do much more than split its final six games, only two of which are on the road.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.